Like climate change, extreme weather events have no borders. The increasing frequency and intensity of these phenomena has caused devastating impacts at regional and global levels (read more here and here). The speed with which they often happen, and in a sudden manner, requires planning and decision-making in real time.
The issue is that the difficulty of local predictability makes it difficult to make decisions to mitigate the impacts. The weather stations that allow forecasts to be made do not have local resolution and are widely spaced, making it impossible to make geographically precise forecasts. Looking at the stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), it is possible to see a greater density in the major centers, while more remote regions have less monitoring(https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).
What's more, Brazil is made up of a wide variety of terrain and biomes and traditional climate models are unable to accurately predict such an unusual event for specific locations, with exponential growth, such as extreme weather events. This difficulty in anticipating takes away any control of the situation, which further increases the negative impacts of these phenomena.
As SiDi's solutions specialist, João Santos, explained about the lack of predictability of extreme weather events:
"You have control within historically known situations. If we don't have any reference to predicted situations, we can fall into a situation without any control."
Today, in sectors directly impacted by climate change, such as dam operations, for example, decision-making depends on the experience of the operator, which is highly subjective and can vary from operator to operator. These sectors require an eye for climatic conditions and the possible impacts on operations and society. Not to mention that response time is a critical factor during natural disasters.
After a disaster strikes, the public sphere seeks to understand what the decisions made were based on. That's why it's important for them to be traceable and objective, mitigating the risks associated with human subjectivity.
The presence of operators is essential when making decisions and these are more efficient when supported by systems that can analyze a large volume of data and deliver summarized points so that the best decision can be made. They also allow processes to be standardized and make it easier to pass on knowledge to new operators.
So, within what is known, how can we predict those points that are extremely out of the curve? How do we make decisions to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events? How do we prepare cities for this climate change scenario to make them more responsive? And finally, how do we develop the necessary tools?
Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) have been used to reduce this time and give traceability to decisions. More accurate AI-based forecasting and decision-making systems allow for more objective and accurate choices, as well as working with more specific regions.
These recommendation, rescue and recovery systems act as virtual operators, co-pilots or advisors and allow for more accurate decisions and a more appropriate approach to situations. They have historical information and draw up scenarios based on objective criteria to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events.
Based on a risk analysis, the AI and Analytics system is able to process a large volume of data in a matter of seconds and present the most important information and possible scenarios in a practical and fast way. This saves time and allows us to think properly in order to make better decisions, taking into account the possibilities of predicted future scenarios.
This type of system can predict situations that indicate, for example:
Each scenario requires a specific set of information, depending on the type and level of detail of the decision that needs to be made. In order to build a well-structured set of recommendations for each situation, which is quick and appropriate for the region, data is needed. And three major challenges in this regard are: having the right data, quality data and up-to-date data.
Because climate change is a global phenomenon, all sectors are affected in some way, even if they don't realize it. When impacted by torrential rain or strong winds, for example, concessionaires in the critical infrastructure sector suffer significant financial and image losses due to the unavailability of their services. Restoring the destroyed operation takes time and results in losses for society, depending on the downtime.
The agricultural sector, for its part, has its crops heavily affected by heavy rains, droughts and fires. Industry, meanwhile, suffers for logistical reasons that affect its supply chain. And public decision-makers face the immediate impact on society, with the loss of human life, homes and people's livelihoods.
And although climate change is changing climate dynamics on a large scale, each region and industry segment will have different needs. And technologies such as Artificial Intelligence make it possible to create hyper-personalized solutions for each region and taking into account the characteristics of each production sector.
More than ever, we need sophisticated systems to be able to forecast extreme weather events, develop recommendation systems and mitigate their impacts. If we do nothing, the scenario is catastrophic. If we do something, we can reduce severe impacts.
Governments have a fundamental and broad role to play in this scenario. But there are things that the private sector can do individually, and some do, that help. This is a shared responsibility, of each and every one of us.
As a Science and Technology Institute (ICT), SiDi has the role of being a leader in this context, being a bridge between the research carried out in universities and its application in society. This involves catalyzing research and technological development, connecting the dots and promoting innovative solutions through partnerships.
In addition, we also have a duty to raise awareness among society and companies, as well as foster conversations between the players to facilitate the search for and implementation of solutions.
If your organization would like to contribute to this cause, find out how to be more resilient and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events through technologies that help with decision-making, please contact us.